Global InfoAnalytics Predicts NDC Parliamentary Majority in 2024 Elections

Global InfoAnalytics has projected a significant parliamentary victory for the National Democratic Congress (NDC) in Ghana’s December 7 elections, positioning the party for a majority in the nation’s legislature.

The latest forecast anticipates the NDC securing approximately 150 seats in the 275-seat parliament, effectively achieving a majority. The New Patriotic Party (NPP) is predicted to win 99 seats, with one seat expected to go to an independent candidate. However, 29 constituencies remain too close to call, showcasing the competitive nature of the elections.

Presidential Race Outlook

On the presidential front, the report projects a win for NDC leader John Dramani Mahama, with an expected 52.2% of the vote. His closest contender, Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia of the NPP, is forecasted to secure 41.4%. Other candidates, including Alan Kyerematen and Nana Kwame Bediako, are predicted to receive 2.5% and 3.0%, respectively, while 0.9% of votes are attributed to other minor candidates.

Regionally, Mahama is forecasted to dominate in 10 regions, including Greater Accra, Central, Volta, and Northern, while Bawumia is expected to lead in regions such as Ashanti, Eastern, and North East.

Key Factors Influencing NDC Gains

The report attributes the NDC’s anticipated parliamentary majority to changing voter preferences in strategic constituencies, influenced by economic challenges and social concerns shaping public sentiment.

The forecast predicts a voter turnout of 77.6%, with significant regional variations that could influence the final outcomes.

Swing Constituencies in Focus

With 29 seats considered too close to call, both the NDC and NPP are expected to engage in intense competition in swing constituencies. For the NPP, holding onto these contested seats will be critical to reducing the projected gap and maintaining a strong parliamentary presence.

As the election date nears, both parties are ramping up their efforts, setting the stage for a fiercely contested electoral battle at both the parliamentary and presidential levels.